I have known for a while that The United States was in recession, but I have never thought that it began in december 2007. Economists use many indicators to predict when we get into this stage, but many of them failed to assure this in this time. In my opinion, I believed that USA has been in recession since june 2008 because the industrial production still showed year-over-year growth in the first semester of 2008 although the other indicators such as unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and personal disposable income less goverment transfers have given us signs of economic weakness. I was convinced that to be in a meltdown period is necessary to have all components in red.
Misleading Indicators
In june 2008, the industrial production grew zero percent in a year-over-year period, and after this month this variable showed negative values. Other indicadors such as retail and total sales gave me the wrong impression of being still out of this period in the first half of this year. On the other hand, employment indicators and personal disposable income have given the contrary evidence since the end of 2007. In addition, consumer confidence, leading indicators, and house indicators have been drawing this bad picture.
NBER Gave Us the Initial Point, But...
The NBER said today the American economy reached its peak in december 2007, and now the problem is to forecast when it would get its trough. Many economists said this period would last one more year , and I agree with them because the real macroeconomic indicators do not exhibit any recuperation sign yet.
In june 2008, the industrial production grew zero percent in a year-over-year period, and after this month this variable showed negative values. Other indicadors such as retail and total sales gave me the wrong impression of being still out of this period in the first half of this year. On the other hand, employment indicators and personal disposable income have given the contrary evidence since the end of 2007. In addition, consumer confidence, leading indicators, and house indicators have been drawing this bad picture.
NBER Gave Us the Initial Point, But...
The NBER said today the American economy reached its peak in december 2007, and now the problem is to forecast when it would get its trough. Many economists said this period would last one more year , and I agree with them because the real macroeconomic indicators do not exhibit any recuperation sign yet.
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